Tuesday, October 9, 2012

The Morning Call-Draghi's money is there, but no takers


The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 13583, S&P 1455) drifted down yesterday, but remained well within their primary trends: (1) short term uptrends [13314-14145, 1429-1521] and (2) intermediate term uptrends [12488-17468, 1318-1916].  Additional (1) resistance exists at 14190/1576 and minor resistance at 13653/1469 and (2) support at 13302/1422 and minor support at 1442. 

            As is usual on Columbus Day, volume was almost nonexistent.  Breadth was lousy.  The VIX rose, finishing in the zone between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

            GLD fell, closing below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  Our time and distance discipline now kicks in; however, because the boundary is one of a very short term trend, the time element consists of only two to three days.  GLD remains well above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.  Below is a must read:

            Bottom line: the primary price trends continue to the upside.  With forward earnings guidance from management headed down, this positive momentum will likely get a test over the next couple of weeks as earnings season starts.  Of course, if investors continue to interpret bad news as good news as they have recently, then sloppy profit reports may have no impact at all.

The internal Market structure continues to make me uneasy, I am not chasing stock prices up.  Indeed, I am playing very close attention to our Sell Discipline.

            Here is some analysis of the advance/decline line (medium):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            As you know, the banks and the government took Monday off; so there was very little news.  Most of the air time yesterday was dedicated to anticipating the upcoming earnings season which starts today after the bell.

            The only other items that bear mentioning are (1) the World Bank lowered global growth---of course, these guys have never been right; so this is almost not worth mentioning and (2) a report out of Europe that Draghi’s new bail out fund is now open for business.  His problem, of course, is that no one wants to ask for a bail out.

            The latest from Spain (medium):

            Dutch companies plan for Greek exit of EU (medium):

            Bottom line: stocks are overvalued (as measured by our Model); and save for the potential of a Romney victory in November which could lead to more responsible fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies, I see nothing else that could take equity prices higher.  In fact, the US is facing several problems with enormous ‘tail risks’ which if they occur would put some real hurt on stock prices. As a result, in my judgment, the risk/reward equation for stocks at current price levels is way out of whack.  So I choose not to play.

            How reliable is the Halloween indicator (medium):

            A look ahead as this week kicks off earnings season (medium):

            Investors appear to be assuming that there will be no ‘fiscal cliff’ (medium):

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