Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Oracle (ORCL) 2012 Review



Oracle develops, manufactures, markets, distributes and services  database and middleware software, applications software and hardware systems (computer server and storage devices).  The company has grown earnings at an 18% rate over the last ten years.  It has paid a dividend for only four years; and that dividend has grown from $.05 per share to $.24 in 2012.  ORCL has consistently earned a 25%+ return on equity.  This outstanding performance should continue as a result of:

(1) its dominant industry position making it a prime beneficiary of above average industry growth,

(2) above average growth in software as service and cloud services,

(3) acquisitions,

(4) highly innovative R&D effort,

(5) pursuing hardware related strategies which should raise profit margins.

Negatives:

(1) there are substantial integration costs associated with the recent acquisition on Sun Microsystems,

(2) its numerous acquisitions has led to goodwill and intangible assets equaling 40% of total assets; in addition, integrating these acquisitions are a distraction from its core business,

(3) its high debt level increases its financial risk,

(4) intense competition.

 ORCL is rated A++ by Value Line, has a 24% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 0.9%.

Statistical Summary

                  Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                  Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2009

ORCL         0.9%          18%              10%             2
Ind Ave       1.3             15*               19               NA 

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
              Equity         ROE      Since 2002      Margin       Rating

ORCL        24%          25%            0                 33%           A++
Ind Ave      16             26              NA               26             NA

  *almost no company in ORCL’s industry pays a dividend 

    Chart

            Note: ORCL stock made good initial progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long tem, the stocks is in an uptrend (straight blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in a trading range (purple lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a 75% position in ORCL.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $30.  The lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $57.


10/12

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